2024 Oscar Predictions: The Standings Before Fall Fests
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer. Courtesy of Universal Pictures.
Whether you like it or not, the beginnings of Oscar season are upon us. The fall film festivals kick off this week with premieres in Venice and Telluride before many buzzy titles head to Toronto next week, inevitably followed by appearances in New York and Los Angeles (AFI or Beyond Fest).
One of the biggest contenders in many categories, Dune: Part Two, announced its departure from this year’s competition after Warner Bros. decided to delay it from its November 3 release date to March 15, 2024. The first Dune film landed 10 nominations, including Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture, and walked away with six wins, primarily in technical categories, plus an Original Score nod for Hans Zimmer. This now opens up room for many films that won’t be dominating the above-the-line categories to get nominated in the techs and for a big sweeper to emerge (enter: Oppenheimer).
Our official updating Oscar predictions page will launch in late September after the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals conclude.
Read our pre-fall-festival predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards below:
Bold indicates winner. Predicted nominees are listed alphabetically by film name.
Best Picture
Anatomy of a Fall — NEON
Barbie — Warner Bros.
The Color Purple — Warner Bros.
The Holdovers — Focus Features
Killers of the Flower Moon — Apple Original Films
Oppenheimer — Universal Pictures
Past Lives — A24
Poor Things — Searchlight
Saltburn — Amazon Films
The Zone of Interest — A24
Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Celine Song, Past Lives
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Natalie Portman, May December
Anette Benning, NYAD
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
John Magaro, Past Lives
Charles Melton, May December
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Lily Gladstone, Killers of The Flower Moon
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Julianne Moore, May December
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall — Written by Arthur Harari, Justine Triet
The Holdovers — Written by David Hemingson
May December — Written by Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
Past Lives — Written by Celine Song
Saltburn — Written by Emerald Fennell
Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie — Written by Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig
Killers of the Flower Moon — Written by Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer — Written by Christopher Nolan
Poor Things — Written by Alasdair Gray, Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest — Written by Jonathan Glazer
Best Cinematography
Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Best Production Design
Asteroid City (Adam Stockhausen)
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong)
Best Costume Design
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman, Janty Yates)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Score
Elemental (Thomas Newman)
Ferrari (Daniel Pemberton)
The Killer (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Best Original Song
”Gonna Be You” (80 For Brady)
”I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
”What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
”Untitled Song” (The Color Purple)
”The Wish” (Wish)
Best Editing
Air
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Best Sound
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Best Animated Feature
The Boy And The Heron — Studio Ghibli/GKIDS
Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget — Netflix
Elemental — Pixar
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse — Sony Pictures Animation
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem — Nickelodeon
Best International Feature
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
Anatomy of a Fall (France)
The Boy and the Heron or Monster (Japan)
La Chimera (Italy)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Best Documentary Feature
20 Days In Mariupol
Beyond Utopia
The Deepest Breath
The Eternal Memory
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Short Film Categories
To Be Determined
